Imagine you're from Jacksonville, Florida, and you have a January travel deadline to Los Angeles.
The only flight on the 2,153-mile route at the moment is a JetBlue morning flight to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), with a red-eye trip back to Jacksonville International Airport (JAX).
Your round-trip ticket was recently purchased, but over the weekend you learned that it was one of 37 flights that JetBlue had abruptly dropped from their schedule.
JetBlue's weekend schedule alterations were unusually drastic, but since the COVID-19 pandemic started to plague the aviation sector in March 2020, regular, disruptive schedule changes from airlines have been the rule rather than the exception.
Airlines from all around the world frequently pushed through significant schedule reductions by double-digit percentage points in single, comprehensive revisions throughout that month as demand quickly dried up.
Customers have been miffed by these adjustments, and authorities have been pressuring carriers to stop publishing schedules they can't actually fly.
According to aviation expert and former airline CEO Robert W. Mann, "I think airlines honestly do believe that they, at some point, will be able to fly such schedules."
But they also understand from their nearly three years of experience that the consequences of not doing so are minimal.
The majority of airlines submit their schedules 330 days in advance on a rolling basis, with Southwest Airlines being a notable exception.
The schedule submitted so far in advance is more idealistic than practical; in many ways, it reflects how airlines really functioned in 2019 or how they anticipated operating in 2020.
According to Cirium Schedule Snapshots, on October 15, 2021, there were a total of 561,022 flights available for purchase for August 2022 on American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines.
In actuality, these three carriers have 439,329 flights planned for this month.
Since last autumn, there has been a reduction of around 22% in that amount.
According to Brett Snyder, who runs the travel service Cranky Concierge and maintains the airline industry blog Cranky Flier, "They will start off and they will get rid of routes that they say, "Well, we know this isn't going to happen."
And from there, they just kind of continue.
According to Snyder, some of the cuts are still being caused by COVID-19 restrictions, particularly in Asia.
He remarked, "Delta just canceled a lot of the Asia through the winter schedule this weekend."
"I'd say it's probably very true right now if you were to look at Asia in March [2023].
Would they have realized that Asia wouldn't open for business three months ago?
Most likely not.
The use of close-in cuts by aircraft for operational purposes has also occurred.
For personnel or other operational reasons, a number of airlines, beginning with Alaska Airlines in April, have been forced to make close-in cuts to right-size schedules.
While United began cutting up to 50 flights per day from its hub at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) in July, Delta made same step in May.
In the upcoming months, American intends to make significant cuts at its hub at Philadelphia International Airport (PHL).
Airlines get more flexibility when staffing or weather unexpectedly go awry by easing up on their schedules.
Then there are the frequent, often unpredictable changes in domestic schedules.
If you're looking at a domestic schedule for March, that's simply unreal, according to Snyder.
Therefore, different portions of the schedule appear accurate at various points in time.
When an airline alters its schedule, an automated re-accommodation procedure is triggered, according to Mann. This process can provide results that are both acceptable and unsuitable.
Customers will tolerate some of that stuff, he predicted.
"Not all of it will be.
There won't really be any good solutions if service is completely lost in some cities.
Booking long in advance is acceptable, especially if you can locate a decent offer, according to Snyder.
However, you must be adaptable and prepare for frequent schedule modifications, particularly during the epidemic phase.
He said, conceding that many travelers buying far in advance are likely to see adjustments, "If you see a fare you like, go ahead, just make sure that you're flexible because what you book today is not what you're going to fly."
Advice on adjusting to schedule changes
The best advice from Snyder for handling a schedule change is to be aware of your carrier's policies on the subject.
If you know what to ask for, you can get an advantage over other people in similar circumstances by using the regulations that are listed on each airline's travel agency website (American, Delta, and United).
"Knowing the rules is already a step up, so then you can say, 'All right, let's see if I could find something on my own,' which is something I always like to do because frequently, if you're just calling someone or looking at the automated options online, that's not going to be the full subset of what you might be able to do," Snyder said.
When calling airlines regarding schedule adjustments, he also advises being persistent, especially if they only want to offer a refund to solve the issue.
Accepting a refund could seem like a smart move, but once you cancel the ticket, it might end up costing you more to rebook than the refund.
If so, it doesn't preclude you from applying pressure and telling them, "Look, you know, you need to do something to repair this,"
said Snyder.
You might or might not succeed, but you don't have to accept "no" as the initial response.
Due to a timetable change, occasionally—just occasionally—you might really come out ahead.
Snyder gave the example of reserving a flight for the Saturday following Thanksgiving in the hopes of leaving that Sunday, which is often the biggest travel day of the year.
Even though it's returning a day earlier than you had anticipated, you decide to purchase the Saturday flight because it might be less expensive than the Sunday flight.
However, if the Saturday flight is ultimately canceled and you are rebooked for Sunday, you really come out ahead.
"People who genuinely want to save a dollar may look and see what the regulations are," he added. "I mean, there's a risk, this is a bet that you're placing.
If you're willing to play the game, there's always a chance that a timetable modification will be advantageous.
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