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Are last-minute flights less expensive? What expert flyers have to say

NEWS - 26-12-2022


It can be exhausting to make an impulsive flight reservation.


In many cases, practically every seat is filled and everything is more expensive.
You are compelled to continuously reload the websites of all the airlines, or you must do Google search after Google search.
When you need something right away, finding it can feel like a full-time job.


But it doesn't necessarily feel impossible to get a good flight deal.
Even if you book last-minutely, you may avoid paying outrageous airfare prices by using the advice we've compiled from experienced travelers. 


Why do tickets become more expensive as you wait? 

 

As airlines compete to sell as many seats as possible, you'd assume everything would get cheaper, but that is not the case.
Actually, the reverse is true.
Last-minute air travel is typically pricey.
Therefore, it's critical to comprehend why flights become even more expensive the longer you wait to book if you are overpaying for travel. 


The managing director of data science at Airlines Reporting Corporation, Chuck Thackston, stated that every airline has its unique method for determining prices.


Thackston observed that "airlines will frequently book flights and set fares for certain flights long in advance."
For a long time, up until it is somewhat closer to leaving, they don't make many modifications or actively manage that.


Airlines can frequently charge the highest costs when reservations are made at the last minute since they are aware that business customers are doing so.


In the past, last-minute deals were common because airlines believed that any seats that remained unsold on a trip represented lost money.
But according to Scott Keyes, the creator of Scott's Cheap Flights, decades-old research by the British Overseas Airways Corporation, the forerunner to British Airways, revealed that those purchasing last-minute seats on flights weren't typically leisure travelers but rather were business travelers. 


Due to the fact that they are not paying for their flights out of their own pockets, business travelers are willing to spend whatever amount is necessary.
Therefore, the pricey airfares you start seeing a few weeks prior to your departure date on airline websites are intended for business travelers rather than vacationers.


Airlines acknowledged that they had believed they were in the business of "killing as many seats as possible," according to Keyes.
We're in the business of trying to make as much money as we can, in truth, though.
And raising the cost of last-minute flights is not what will generate the most profit.
Actually, it's to raise the cost of last-minute airfares. 


When is the best time to purchase tickets? 

 

According to every travel professional we spoke with, booking your flights is best done one to four months in advance for domestic travel and at least six months in advance for overseas travel.


The evidence supports that.
The ARC states that there isn't much fluctuation in prices between 120 and 30 days prior to your departure.
The company also discovered that you may save up to 10% on flights by planning your foreign trip at least six months in advance.


According to Hayley Berg, an economist at Hopper, prices are at their lowest one to two months before departure since some individuals may be looking at flights but not making a purchase; the low costs encourage travelers to make a purchase now rather than wait.
Airlines may increase their ticket prices when such flights gradually start to fill up.
Those with limited flexibility in their travel dates will thus be forced to book the most expensive fare.


Because not many people have made reservations yet, you typically see reduced costs, Berg explained.


For domestic flights, Keyes referred to the one-to-three-month booking window as the "Goldilocks window."
According to him, the "Goldilocks window" for booking overseas flights is between two and eight months beforehand.


The same guidelines may not always apply if you're wanting to book flights for Christmas or Thanksgiving; you must purchase those tickets much earlier.
The standard is to reserve those flights by Thanksgiving, at least for Christmas travel, but it's usually preferable to do it as soon as feasible. 


But keep in mind that not always the early bird gets the worm.
If you book your flights a year in advance, you won't get the best deal; in fact, the prices will go up.


On most airlines, ticket sales begin around 11 months prior to departure, according to Keyes.
And generally speaking, the airline fares are not going to be a fantastic value when they first start selling tickets 11 months in advance. 


How much does timing matter? 

 

The most crucial element in choosing a flight is certainly timing.


The most significant factors affecting airfare are your intended travel dates and the precise day you buy your flight.
The "sweet spot" for a discount, according to Berg, is for flights with departure dates on a Tuesday or a Wednesday.


Thackston also mentioned that since more leisure travel tickets have been bought and customers are more likely to be looking for deals on the weekends, average leisure travel fare costs tend to be lower on the weekends.


Fares may increase due to a destination's popularity at a certain time of year.
Finding a nice, last-minute deal may be more difficult, for instance, if you're traveling to New Orleans in February for Mardi Gras or New York City in December to see the holiday decorations.


Supply and demand truly are all there is to it, according to Thackston.
As departure day draws near, you won't be able to find as good of a price if you want to go to a popular place during a busy time.


You're also more likely to find a decent deal at the last minute if you book your flights during off-peak periods, such as the middle of January rather than right before Christmas.


A cheap, last-minute Christmas flight is virtually a contradiction in terms; they simply don't exist, according to Keyes.
"I mean, it's really, really unusual.
However, since January and February are the two least popular travel months of the year, it is actually much easier to find inexpensive last-minute flights during those months. 


Is the final destination significant? 


It depends.


Competition is one of the elements that affect airline ticket costs.
For instance, a popular route like New York City to Miami may be reasonably priced since airlines compete for as many passengers as possible.
A less popular route, like Akron, Ohio to New York City, could be more expensive.


Since the former is a much more common route than the latter, you would be more likely to discover a last-minute discount from New York City to Miami than from Akron to New York City.
In addition, there are more opportunities to save money on a domestic flight than on an international one.


However, Berg noted that it might still be challenging to obtain a last-minute price for holiday spots like Cancun, Mexico, as the travelers who purchased those tickets most likely did so in advance and planned a trip.
As a result, airlines have fewer seats available on their trips, thus they are more inclined to raise the price as more individuals are interested in making reservations.


To avoid overpaying for tickets to leisure destinations at the last minute, Keyes advised going with a low-cost airline like Frontier or Spirit.
Budget airlines don't always have the same authority to substantially raise fares as Delta Air Lines or American Airlines do because they primarily serve leisure customers. 


Due to airlines' attempts to overcharge business passengers, Keyes claimed that last-minute flights frequently cost more money.
"The majority of the passengers who fly on low-cost airlines are often leisure travelers.
They simply don't have the same pricing power to be able to raise last-minute fares as much as United, American, and Delta do as a result. 


How about "hidden-city" reservations? 

 

Booking a flight with a layover in the city you want to go to is referred to as "hidden-city booking."
These passengers don't board the subsequent section after the plane reaches the layover city.


As an illustration, suppose you wish to travel to Charlotte but discover a cheaper trip from Newark to Austin that includes a stopover in Charlotte.
Therefore, after the plane lands in Charlotte, all you would need to do is get off and not take the subsequent flight from Charlotte to Austin.


Since the hidden city approach has several limitations, none of the experts suggested it, especially for first-time travelers.


First off, you are only allowed to bring a carry-on bag because checked baggage is only allowed to the destination listed on your ticket, not the layover location.


Additionally, round-trip tickets are not available because they will be canceled if you miss a flight portion.
Additionally, if the layover location switches from Charlotte to Washington, D.C., you won't really be able to convince an airline representative that you need to be in Charlotte instead. 


If a company discovers that you use this trick too frequently, they may increase the cost of your ticket, deduct frequent flyer miles from you, or even refuse to let you board the plane.


Instead of using strategies like hidden-city booking, Berg and Thackston advised using a travel agency to purchase flights.


If you're not accustomed to how the process is carried out, Thackston explained that searching for flights might occasionally be difficult.
In order to find the greatest deals, it is normally a really good idea to use a professional travel agent or an internet travel agency like Expedia or someone similar. 


Can you use miles and incentives to discover a last-minute deal? 

 

There is a chance, but it's difficult.


According to Keyes, getting a deal in miles is much harder these days because mileage values are more frequently closely associated with cash pricing. This makes finding a last-minute deal in miles even harder.


According to Keyes, "I believe there are fewer prospects for value now than there were in the past."


To see if there is anything in the awards category, it is still worthwhile to look.
For instance, in a recent article, we discussed how United and Delta were providing last-minute, reduced flights in miles to Hawaii.
Mileage bargains are more likely to change often than other types of deals, so you do need to move quickly when you see one of those.


Having status with a particular credit card or mileage program, according to Berg, might be advantageous since you may be able to book a basic economy ticket with status with an airline and get your bags checked for free.


The whole cost of your vacation should be considered because you can find yourself paying a lot of fees despite getting a really good price on your airfare, according to Berg.
Whereas, depending on the airline, if you have a specific credit card or purchased that budget ticket, you may receive one or two bags for free. 


Additional advice for booking last-minute flights 

 

If you need to make a last-minute airline reservation, all of the professionals with whom we consulted had a variety of advice.


Thackston advised booking a good deal on a fare as soon as you see it because the longer you wait, the more likely it is that the fare will increase.
When you make your reservation counts as well.
According to ARC data, travelers who make their reservations on Sundays are more likely to save up to 15% on international flights and 5% on domestic flights.


The group also discovered that Wednesdays are less expensive than other days to fly out, with savings of up to 15%.
The most expensive departure days are often those on Saturday through Monday.


The "21-day rule," as described by Keyes, states that the latest you can book your flight and still get a reasonable rate is at least 21 days in advance.


"[Airlines] claim that this fare is only accessible up to 21 days before to departure.
"That fare expires on day 20," Keyes remarked.
It's no longer on sale, and the new, least costly airfare will actually cost $100 to $200 more.


When booking last-minute flights, Berg advised being adaptable about your destination and departure points.


Be flexible if you genuinely want to save money, she advised, and you can usually come up with a solution.
That is really the key to finding good prices, she said. 


In conclusion 

 

Finding a last-minute deal can be challenging because numerous variables, such as location and schedule, affect fare rates.


Booking your flights as soon as you find a decent deal is always preferable to delay.


Even if finding fantastic prices a few days prior to departure is occasionally achievable, you'll frequently end up choosing a less desired location or ticket.
Even for seasoned travelers, certain strategies, such as hidden-city booking, can be too complicated.


Being flexible, booking specials as you come across them, or attempting to make your reservations at least 21 days before to your departure date are your best bets for finding cheap flights.
In this manner, you can avoid paying exorbitant airfare.
However, bear in mind that the likelihood of discovering inexpensive, last-minute flights is low.