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Is flying across large oceans really so risky? explains a pilot

NEWS - 21-06-2022


I went for a walk recently with a friend who used to work as a flight attendant, and we happened to be in New York at the same time.
While catching up on life, the topic of conversation shifted to flying and her adventures crossing the Atlantic.
She'd never given much thought to how her planes crisscrossed the globe during her time as a flight attendant.


She became increasingly interested as the conversation went in how planes fly from Europe to the United States, and in particular, how safe it is to fly across big stretches of sea. 

To be honest, after nearly a decade of flying across the Atlantic, I've never given this any thought.
We have procedures in place that we follow on every flight, and we then proceed to traverse this vast body of water many times a month without much thought.
That is, until now. 


Transatlantic flight history 

Until the early 1900s, the only way to travel between Europe and North America was by boat.
Cunard was one of the most well-known operators of these ocean ships.


It began in 1839, when Canadian Samuel Cunard was awarded the first British government contract to provide a regular mail delivery service across the Atlantic.
Traveling across the Atlantic aboard a Cunard ship immediately became one of the most popular options.


Ocean liners like the Lusitania could reach speeds of up to 24 knots in the early twentieth century, implying that the journey would take roughly a week to accomplish. 

In the 1930s, however, aircraft were beginning to be able to fly this journey, albeit with stops along the way.


Pan Am's flying boat Yankee Clipper travelled from New York to Southampton in 1939, stopping at many airfields along the way, including Newfoundland, Canada, and Foynes, Ireland. 

Then, in 1958, British Overseas Airways Corporation, with its de Havilland Comet, became the first airline to fly a jet between London and New York.
The flight between the two cities took only 10 hours and 20 minutes, with a single refuelling stop in Gander, Newfoundland. 

The return trip took only six hours and 12 minutes, thanks to a good tailwind, for an average speed of 580 mph.
With this, the ocean liner's demise for long-distance travel rather than leisure trips began.


Despite the increased speeds, planes still needed to refuel along the way, necessitating a route that kept them close to land.
Furthermore, because engines were not especially reliable at the time, pilots required a nearby airport where they could land in an emergency. 

As technology advanced, aeroplanes powered by four jet engines, such as the Boeing 707 and then the legendary 747, became the new skyliner ocean liners. 

Despite the fact that these were fuel-hungry machines, oil prices were low, allowing airlines to earn handsomely when filling these massive planes as they flew between continents.


The beauty of these four-engine planes was that if one of the engines failed, the other three could keep the plane flying safely.
Even if another engine failed, the plane could still safely divert and land. 

Twin-engine aircraft were authorised to perform the same journey, but had to fly paths that kept them within 60 minutes of a diversion airport due to their lack of engine redundancy.
This, therefore, adds a significant amount of miles to the trip, making their use less than ideal in terms of time and fuel burn. 


Flights ETOPS 


Since the first transatlantic crossing 100 years ago, breakthroughs in engine and aircraft reliability have permitted regulators to allow two-engine aircraft to fly farther and farther from the next acceptable airstrip in the event of an engine failure.


The routes that aeroplanes could fly were pretty limited when they only had 60 minutes of single-engine flying time from the next viable airstrip.
Nowadays, 180 minutes is the standard, allowing planes to fly around the world practically anywhere they want. 

Extended-range twin-engine operations, or ETOPS, rules apply to any flight by a twin-engine aircraft that is more than 60 minutes of flying time from a suitable airport at any point during its voyage.
Despite the fact that most ETOPS flights take place over vast stretches of water, such as the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the rules can also apply to flights over vast swaths of land, such as those over Africa and Russia. 

The most essential element of an ETOPS flight is the planning phase, which is mostly handled by the airline's flight planning department. 

They must guarantee that the flight follows a variety of rules and laws, as well as that the plan they submit to the operating crew is lawful and safe for the journey.


They must confirm that the aircraft is certified airworthy to carry out an ETOPS flight, that the weather at the nominated airports along the way is acceptable, and that there is enough fuel to divert to one of them if necessary.


As a result, whenever a flight crosses a body of water, extensive checks are performed to verify that the plane can safely land at a suitable airport along the route. 

Options for the Mid-Atlantic 

When peering out the window on a transatlantic journey, it's easy to believe your plane is nowhere near land.
To some extent, you'd be correct. 

We frequently fly directly over the Atlantic on select trips.
This can be seen in places like Miami and the Caribbean.
Other cities, such as Boston and New York, are reached through a more northerly route that passes through eastern Canada before entering the United States.
The path often takes us near to Iceland and then across Greenland for West Coast locations like San Francisco and Los Angeles.


These routes, on the other hand, have less to do with our proximity to land and more to do with taking advantage of the best wind conditions in the world. 

We shall attempt to fly routes where the winds are at their lightest on westbound flights, even if it means flying a longer track over the land, because global winds tend to move from west to east.
As a result, our overall flying duration will be shorter, and we will consume less fuel.


Even if we fly directly across the Atlantic to Miami, there are more airports to choose from than you may expect. 

There are numerous alternatives in the northern region of the North Atlantic.
Shannon, Ireland, is one of the greatest alternatives as we begin our westbound passage.
The airport has a 3,200-meter runway with approach aids that allow planes to land in fog with visibility as low as 300 metres.


As we go across, our next stop is usually Keflavik, Iceland.
Despite the fact that the airfield is notorious for its severe winds, it features two long runways that connect.
One of them travels north-south, while the other runs east-west. 

This means that if we have to land there, we'll be able to do it on a runway that has a slight headwind rather than a crosswind.


There are several viable diversion choices as we approach the Canadian side of the Atlantic, including St. John's, Gander, and Stephenville.
The Azores are another option if our trip takes us further south in the Atlantic.
Both Santa Maria and Lajes have runways long enough to accommodate even the largest planes. 

Bermuda is the next stop on this more southerly itinerary.
Even though I've flown by Bermuda numerous times, the islands' location in the Atlantic constantly astounds me.
The airport provides an ideal landing site with its 3,000-meter runway if we need it. 

Is it dangerous to fly over water? 

Life is, at its core, a gamble.
Every day, you are confronted with a variety of situations that could be harmful to your health.
You run the risk of tripping and falling while walking down the steps.
There's a chance you'll burn yourself while preparing your breakfast.


Flying is the same way.
You're taking a risk when you load a metal (or fibreglass) tube with fuel, speed it down a strip of concrete to 180 mph, and then ascend it up to 7 miles above the ground.
The risks we take, like all of the events in our daily lives, are calculated. 

We don't go too fast down the stairs and hold on to the handrail.
We use heatproof gloves when using the oven to prevent the risk of being burned.
All of these actions lessen the likelihood that these catastrophes may pose a threat to our lives.


Since the Wright brothers first took to the skies, the aviation industry has learnt from its mistakes and tragedies in order to make the world a safer place.
Commercial aviation is so effective at learning from past mistakes and putting systems in place to prevent them from happening again that other industries have borrowed many of the same techniques. 

When flying over land, there will almost certainly be more airfields closer to the aircraft at any particular time.
Crossing the oceans, however, is considered as safe as flying over land due to lessons learned from history and advancements in aircraft and engine reliability.


The crew of an aircraft will always know where the nearest diversion airfield is if the ETOPS rules are in force.
In practise, this is rarely more than 90 minutes to two hours away on most routes. 

In aviation, safety is all about preparing for the worst-case situation while hoping for the best.
That way, if it isn't our day, we know we have a backup plan in place to deal with unforeseen situations.
A good example is gasoline.


Flight planning software for airlines is quite effective at calculating how much fuel will be required for a certain flight.
It's so exact, in fact, that it's often within a few hundred kilogrammes.
However, on some days, the winds aren't as predicted, and air traffic control may redirect us to a longer route. 

We always carry a certain quantity of extra gasoline, known as contingency fuel, to cover these unforeseen circumstances.
So, if this happens in the middle of the Atlantic, we'll be able to continue securely on our route. 


Final thoughts 

We take a risk every time we leave the house.
However, we constantly evaluate and make judgments concerning these dangers in our daily lives.
Aviation is the same way.
We know that by planning for the worst-case scenario, the aircraft's and its occupants' safety will not be threatened if the unexpected occurs.
Flying over water, as a result, is no riskier than flying over land. 


So, the next time you board a trip across the Atlantic or Pacific, rest certain that strict plans have been put in place to ensure your safety for the duration of your voyage.