In the post-COVID vaccination age, flying has become a test of patience due to persistent operational failures that dampen travelers' anticipation of resuming their travels.
Will this year's holiday season be better or are we in for another rough ride? This is the main concern on many travelers' minds after several successive busy travel seasons marred by delays and cancellations that left customers missing the holidays or stranded for days.
Robert W. Mann, an aviation consultant and former airline executive, remarked that it ultimately hinges on a few scenarios.
He is, yet, circumspectly upbeat.
In spite of rising fares, he noted that there is still a high level of demand, saying, "They seem to have priced it for perfection."
They should be motivated to perform well because of that, right?
At least in part, many of the problems that caused the earlier meltdowns have been resolved.
This summer, airlines drastically reduced their capacity as a result of learning a sobering lesson about their abilities to meet demand with limited margins.
This prevented inevitable events like weather-related delays from turning into days-long sagas of delayed passengers. It also freed up aircraft and crew personnel to assist in recovery during irregular operations.
Along with bad weather across the nation, the appearance of the Omicron strain and its quick spread were other factors that caused travel problems around Christmas and New Year's last year.
However, airlines have had time since the meltdowns earlier in 2022 to at least partially replenish their reduced ranks.
They have an additional six months to develop hiring strategies, according to Mann.
According to a research note published on October 10 by Connor Cunningham, an airline analyst at Melius Research, things have been mostly brought under control.
Airlines have given their networks more wiggle room, which has greatly reduced the operational problems that the group has been experiencing, according to Cunningham.
However, there's always a chance that the holidays will turn chaotic.
This year, the holidays will be a significant hindrance.
The ability to maintain holiday flight schedules often depends on airline staff taking on extra work and trips, frequently in exchange for hefty incentives.
Thanksgiving falls earlier than normal this year on November 24.
This indicates that the holiday season, which lasts from the days before Thanksgiving until New Year's, is longer than usual.
The resources available to the airline crew may be stretched as a result, necessitating longer workweeks overall.
Due to the extended time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, as well as other scheduling irregularities, Cunningham argued that holiday timing could potentially present challenges.
The extended holiday season, on the other hand, was presented by Delta management as being beneficial for running its business during a recent conference call with investors.
CEO Ed Bastian predicted during the call that there would be a more normalized flow than usual.
"On the busiest days and some of the slower travel days, holidays are typically highly busy.
I anticipate that the week before Thanksgiving will be quite busy because travelers have far more freedom and mobility than employees have "Bastian remarked that Wednesday was not the main day.
He continued, "Managing flow will also help us operationally a little bit."
"I think you'll see that over the Christmas-New Year's holiday as well," she said.
Airlines may find it difficult to persuade staff to take on additional responsibilities this year as well, given that the holidays fall around the end of each respective month, when many employees have already completed their required hours.
When it comes to personnel availability, Mann added, "that's just the hardest time."
Airlines provided extra incentives, such premium pay rates and bonuses, last year for workers to work holiday shifts, and Mann anticipates that this year's tool will be beneficial.
The need to "incentivize volunteerism," so to speak, is becoming more and more apparent, according to Mann.
"It's a change, too.
Volunteerism used to be both accepted and uncompensated."
Mann stated that even so, the increased pay might not be sufficient to fully meet the demand for staffing.
Volunteerism can only be encouraged to a certain extent, he said.
"You're going to get individuals who respond to it because of the money, but there are some people who, frankly, aren't interested in the extra money over the holidays — they're more interested in being home with their families."
Unfortunately, there is never a guarantee that things will go smoothly, even though the airlines seem to be more prepared overall for this holiday season.
The weather, Mann added, "basically simply boils down to external elements like weather, whether that consumes up extra crew time earlier in the month, or whether that may occur over the holiday period itself."
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